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Just watched a really interesting documentary on the Flash Crash of 2010 :

Money & Speed: Inside the Black Box

Some stand-out points :
> CFTC / SEC attribute the root cause as Waddell & Reed ‘dumping’ $4.1bn shares
> Eric Hunsader @ Nanex looks at the W&R trades [ see video at 34m18s ]
> W&R trades don’t look like dumping, they maximize sell price during local up runs
> there are other trades that do look like aggressive dumping, ie. rapid sequential bursts down

The Nanex explanation of the Flash Crash : FlashCrashAnalysis

Price manipulation ?

This raises an interesting Question :

Is it possible for a black box algorithm to use a rational probabilistic strategy to drive down stock price in bursts like this, in order to later buy the stock at a very low artificially deflated price ?  You’d need a lot of stock to do this : is there a threshold of stock volume, say 5% of all stock, under which its impossible to create this effect ?

Price Delay Arbitrage ?

Another aspect of this, is the possibility to do ‘Diffusion Arbitrage’ for want of a better name :

If you can drive the market so quickly that derived instruments take seconds to reprice ( due to the storm of new data), then you have that window to trade ahead of the market in options or indexes based on the underlying you have manipulated.

In this case the delay was a whopping 5 to 35 seconds : see for example Nanex’s FlashCrashSummary , showing the delayed drop and recovery of the Dow.

Introduction

Tagninju is an ergonomic tag-centric Time and Cost tracking tool.

Its very simple to use and extremely flexible :

  • use keyword tags to organise and group entries
  • rather than type a long description, keep it terse, with tags
  • tags suggest : topic, person, subject, code, urgency, project, specifics
  • inbuilt auto clock timer with pause and continue
  • set todos into the future quickly
  • provides rapid insight into costs and time

Uses

TagNinju app is handy for :

  • gain real insight into your time usage [ procrastination or productivity ]
  • keep yourself motivated with objective progress notes
  • track progress towards a goal like weight loss, fitness, savings
  • budgeting : shopping list and track expenses quickly
  • track hours worked on jobs for freelancers and contractors
  • HTML5 local storage means works on mobile tablet or web

Story

I noticed a lot of time dissapeared on unimportant things, and my productivity and motivation was inconsistent. Some days I would feel motivated and get a lot done, other days Id languish and could not really recall what I spent time on or what goals had been achieved.

I looked for a good app, but the note takers were too general, and a spreadsheet was not easy to use on mobile, many time tracker systems were slow or overkill. Eventually I started working on a simple web app to do this. I added an automated timer clock, and this at least allowed me to note down tasks. I started off writing readable sentence notes, but migrated to a terse form with just keywords. I added a simple filter search and found that worked well : I could zoom into areas of interest by keyword, such as shopping or weight or fee or run or billable.

I gradually noticed a useful psychological side-effect of tracking my time : I wanted to get stuff done just so that I could note it down! Id catch myself thinking.. Hmm I havent put in any entries for exercise the last 2 days, I better do some situps or a run so I can put that in.
So actually noting things down had the effect of pushing me to get more good things done.
Theres a kind of objectivity, and also the effect of your motivated self observing your unmotivated self and kind of comparing the two.

I recently heard a talk by memory expert Josh Foer, about autopilot subconscious plateaus. This is where your activity matches your expectation set point at the OK level and so your conscious mind doesnt need to be engaged. We do this everyday for routine tasks, we perform them uncounsciously or rather subconsciously, on auto-pilot.

Autopilot is great for things we dont want to improve : washing dishes, shaving, driving to work.
For things we do want to improve, we need some way of making the activity stand out to our conscious minds so we can evaluate performance and goals and try a different strategy. Time tracking seems to help with this, it makes you review what youve just been doing.

Im not recommending tracking everything, in fact I think its good to decide to not track some areas, maybe the weekends or reading time in the evening. But it can give real insight and motivation for those areas we want to improve : lose weight, gain fitness, reduce cigarettes, study more effectively etc.

Tips

You might find these tips handy :

  • tap timer to pause the clock and restart it
  • tap and drag out from timer box to select a time period
  • use meaningful tags, use multiple tags
  • use quick filter search to zoom into that topic or area

Coming soon

These are some future features which might make Tagninju more useful :

  • sync between versions [ entries shared across devices : mobile, web and tablet ]
  • dropbox integration
  • csv import / export [ to and from spreadsheet ]
  • bar charts to show time and cost spent by tag
  • shared groups

Some of these features will be more useful to professionals, small business founders and freelancers and will be released as part of the upcoming paid version : TagNinju Pro.

Suggestions

Im interested to see how people use TagNinju for tracking time and cost, for achieving goals and personal growth.

Please do email me with your suggestions and feedback at justgord@gmail.com